Expectations for US Fed interest rate cut in September continue to rise, SHFE tin fluctuates at highs [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of September 2, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract opened lower at 273,500 yuan/mt, hovering at highs during the session. By midday, it closed at 274,360 yuan/mt, rising slightly from the previous settlement price, with intraday fluctuations reflecting the market's repeated tug-of-war between macro optimism and weak fundamentals. Overnight, LME tin closed at $35,060/mt, up 0.31%, but during today's Asian trading session, LME e-tin pulled back under pressure, with the latest quote at $34,895/mt, down 0.47%, indicating cautious overseas trading sentiment.

From a macro perspective, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in September continued to build, while the US dollar index fluctuated downward, providing support for dollar-denominated tin prices. Domestic A-shares kicked off September with a "strong start," as recovering risk appetite and expectations for loose liquidity enhanced the allocation value of commodities, driving a corrective rebound in tin prices. However, supply and demand fundamentals remained weak on both fronts. Currently, only AI servers, PV, and battery sectors provided partial demand support, while solder orders from consumer electronics stayed sluggish. In the spot market, bargain-hunting sentiment improved slightly amid price declines, but cautious capital sentiment kept downstream buyers focused on just-in-time procurement, with actual transaction volumes awaiting further improvement. Overall, tin prices maintained a fluctuating trend amid the interplay of supply disruptions and weak demand, with key support eyed at the 270,000-yuan psychological level. The afternoon session warrants close attention to capital flows and spot trade sentiment, with tin prices expected to extend slight fluctuations within a projected range of 270,000-276,000 yuan/mt.